WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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FOR 2/25/2020 - from Rogueweather
Back we go into yet another period of sunny weather courtesy of a ridge blocking any storms from reaching us. This time however we are expecting to see the warmest temps of the year so far develop on Thursday and Friday. Medford may hit 70 for the first time in 2020. In fact, looking at this, one could hardly be blamed for thinking spring, or even summer has arrived. Well, Meteorological Spring will arrive at Midnight Sunday morning. But, that is when we will see the arrival of wintry conditions as well. We have a series of systems that will come in. The first one for the weekend will be the weakest of the series. But, it will be stronger than anything we have seen for over a month by the time it comes in. Widespread rain and snow is expected. Amounts will not be anything impressive on this first system coming in. Snow levels will be on the higher side of things around 5000 feet on average. This means there is not likley to be much impact on travel. And, not likely to be much cnow for Mt. Ashland and Mt. Shasta for skiers and snowboarders.
System two coming in will be stronger......and also colder. Right now looking at what the forecast models are showing us, this storm is going to be the wettest one we have seen since the middle of January. It will produce significant rains over a wide area and it will get rain to areas east of the Cascades. Colder air will come in with this storm. Snow levels will start high and then will be coming down. By tuesday into Wednesday look for them to be down around 3500 feet. And this is going to see impacts for travel for all of the higher passes from the Siskiyou Summit on I 5 north through the Cascades, and then east of the Cascades. We are going to be watching what happens later Wednesday into Thursday. Snow levels would get low enough to get snow on the passes on I 5 north of Grants Pass and on Highway 199 out to the coast. But, how much moisture is there going to be? That is going to be the very big question. If there is any kind of moisture remaining in play, then we could see impacts for travel on the lower passes Wednesday and Thursday morning. But, we are still over a week out and things could change before we get there. There is a thrid system lining up behind the second one. It can be seen in the longer range data. But, it is so far out and there is a lot of uncertainty associated with it. Want to see some model resolution before I get too committed to likely outcomes at this point.
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