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WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS

 

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FOR 10/21/2018 - 

Just when it was looking like we were going to see a very significant rain arrive, the forecasting models and data have taken a big turn. And while up front there is some disappointment, the bigger picture for the remainder of the month actually looks better for us to see rain arriving. The long established Omega Block that has given us the glorious Indian Summer conditions is looking now as though it will break down and then NOT reestablish as it had looked like it was going to three days ago. What is being seen now is the setting up of something that we would typically see in late September and through mid October in most years. The storm track will be just out north. A series of storms that is looking like an Atmospheric River event will pass to our north. But, these storms will be close enough to drag their southern ends through our area. This will give us periodic chances for rain developing. Seeing this development is a very encouraging sign for us. When we see this setting up, typically it means we are anywhere from 2 weeks to a month to the onset of more substantial rains. Will that be the case this time? Too far out to know for sure. But, our odds of seeing rain did just increase in the bigger scheme of things. We'll take that.
 
In the shorter term of the next 7 - 10 days what we are seeing thing morning paints a picture showing the best chances for rain being from the Cascades west. Right now Thursday and Friday look like the wettest days. There will be a weak system drag through on Tuesday. Amounts of rain from it will be on the very light side where it does happen. Thursday and Friday looks to be when areas from the Cascades west could see a good wetting rain. There will be a break next Saturday. How long that break lasts before the next system comes in north of us is unclear. Some forecast models want to bring clouds back in on us with a chance for rain at the coast and for Coos and Douglas Counties next Sunday. Other models hold that off until Sunday night. But, we do know there that you can expect to see forecasts with a chance for rain in them not later than next Sunday night, and for sure by the morning of Monday the 29th. Halloween right now still looks ok in that we are not expecting to be seeing a soaking rain that makes things miserabel for trick or treaters.. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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