WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
Brought to you by:
FROM MEDFORD NWS 1/9
Just some high cloud moving through the forecast area as a ridge continues to build over northern California and southern Oregon this afternoon. Temperatures are just starting to push into the 40`s and most areas should top out in the mid 40`s this afternoon. We went with a persistence forecast for tonight with more fog and freezing fog in the valleys. Dewpoints did come up a bit as we mix the boundary layer and we expect overnight low temperatures to be similar to last night. So without much change in conditions, we decided to issue a freezing fog advisory for the valleys in Jackson and Josephine Counties. As for Klamath County, the air is likely too dry there. Klamath Falls is currently sitting at a 24 dewpoint and the MAV and MET MOS guidance are not expecting any fog tonight. However, the ridge does build a bit tonight and there was some fog or low stratus to the north Friday morning. Therefore, it could happen and impact Klamath Falls later tonight, we just didn`t issue the advisory there. Same goes with northern California as there was fog or low clouds near Fort Jones, but that is a fairly isolated area in Siskiyou County.
The air will remain stagnant heading into Saturday with a ridge overhead. The 00Z sounding today should give some hints at how much we`re mixing, but HRRR forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest only a few hundred feet on Saturday. The forecast changes slightly by Sunday with a weak atmospheric river and stationary front impacting locations well to our north. There is a 10 to 15% chance of rain just south of Florence on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, but that is it for precipitation chances through the forecast as a upper ridge strengthens.
Ensemble data is showing abnormally warm temperatures for much of next week, especially towards the tail end of the week. EFI(extreme forecast index) values for high temperatures from the ECMWF ensemble are around 0.8 to 0.9 over sections of the forecast area. That denotes high confidence of warmer that normal temperatures heading into next week with the potential to break some records. Right now, we`re forecasting some records to fall on Wednesday the 14th and Thursday the 15th.
Looking at some of the individual deterministic models, they denote a pretty strong thermal trough building up the Oregon coastline with a modest east to west pressure gradient and easterly flow. Both the ECMWF and GFS were showing temperatures pushing into the upper 60`s and perhaps the lower 70`s along sections of the coast and coastal valleys, which is notable for mid January. As for westside valleys and Medford, the question is always fog and how it could inhibit our daily high temperature. Right now our forecast lies below the 50th percentile on the NBM. If we miss out of the fog, we`ll likely see lower 60`s compared to the mid 50`s in the forecast. Overall, minor impact weather, yet a lot of interesting things going on next week. Not great news for our limited snow pack on the other hand.
The above information is made possible by First Strike Environmental. Providing emergency response and management of hazadous materials incidents and also response for wildland fire fighting, First Strike is the first call of many state and federal agencies. They are a Southern Oregon family owned company in Roseburg. Proud to sponsor Rogueweather.com.
