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FOR 8/19/2019 - from Rogueweather

 
It is funny what 24 hours can do.  24 hours ago it loooked like we would see a system come in Wednesday well to the north of us that would give the coast and Coos and Douglas Counties a slight chance for some showers. On the whole we expected a lo9t of sunshine with temps just slightly above average. Today, all of that is getting stood on it's head.
 
First off, we are not seeing changes for today and tomorrow. Those forecasts are on track. We will be seeing abundantly sunny skies and temps right at or just slightly above seasonal averages. And, we will be dry. But, the situation for Wednesday has turned hugely now.
 
On Wednesday a system is going to come much further south than it looked like it would yesterday at the this time. And, it is going to have more punch to it in terms of rainfall. This system looks very much like the kind of systems we see from mid September through mid October as we start to see the transition to the wetter weather to come in November. So this is going to be about a month early for this kind of system. It is now expected that light steady state rains will come as far south as Douglas County. Jackson, and Josephine Counties along with Western Siskiyou County now look as though there will be at least a chance for showers. I believe the Umpqua Divide will hold the rains to the north. Is this going to be a really significant steady state rain that could end fire season in Coos and Douglas Counties? No. But, it should put a damper on things for sure. Even in areas that do not see rain, there will be much higher humidity levels. By the way, no chance of thunderstorms being seen here at all. It is not that kind of system. We just do not have the right dynamics with it for thunder.
 
I said we will see cooler temps with this system. How cool depends on what forecast model you want to look at. There is one showing Medford with a high of 67 on Wednesday. There is another that shows Medford at 85. That is a huge spread. I am going to be forecasting highs to be in the mid 70s to near 80 for the valleys west of the Cascades. The reason being, there is a lot of tropical air and moisture entrained in this system. So, expect it to be much more likely that the upper end of guidance for temps is right. In the mountains and east of the Cascades we have the same issue. But, as I am doing for the valleys west of the Cascades, going to take the upper end of guidance and that puts us in the upper 50s to near 70 in the mountains, and upper 60s to the mid 70s east of the Cascades. But, I am still going to be watching this today and tomorrow to see how this works out. This system is going to get pushed to the northeast pretty quickly. Once it departs, we will see the ridge in the desert Southwest working it's way towards us reasserting itself. And this is where change #2 from yesterday happens.
 
I am going to be forecasting widespread heat for the inland areas of Southern Oregon and Northern California. 24 hours ago we were pretty close to that, but the forecasts i had up only had "hot" for the Klamath River Valley. So the ridge is going to give us enough of a bump in temps now to be able to move the forecasts generally to hot. As I said yesterday, not as hot as we could be for the time of the year. But, for what we have been seeing this summer, hotter than what we have been. Expect plenty of middle 90s to low 100s west of the Cascades. The hotter temps will be in the Klamath River Valley. Expect upper 90s for Medford. East of the Cascades going to mid 80s to mid 90s with the hottest temps there in the Klamath basin and in Modoc County. Expect very sunny skies with no chances for showers and thunderstorms. And, looking even further out....as we approach Labor Day expect temps will be dropping slightly. But, we will be locked into being near to slightly above average for our temps over the entire area. We also do not expect to see any real chances for rainfall anywhere at this time. The first wave of school districts opening comes next Monday. Looks like you need to be dressing your kids for summer. And, it looks like those camping and outdoor plans for Labor day weekend are going to be just fine. 

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