WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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FROM MEDFORD NWS 9/13
KEY POINTS
*Warm temperatures and dry conditions are expected for the week ahead, with daytime highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal possible by Thursday and Friday.
*A cutoff low may bring periods of gusty westerly winds to western Cascades foothills and up to Crater Lake and Diamond Lake on Wednesday or Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms may also be possible.
Most areas (excepting Siskiyou County) saw at least some rainfall through the day on Saturday, although amounts for inland areas were generally measured in the hundreths of an inch. Gusty winds over east side terrain generally reached 30-40 mph, with one observation from Coffee Pot Flat reaching 57 mph. Activity has decreased early this morning, with winds back to normal levels across the area and a few light showers trailing over Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties. For today, cool temperatures are expected on either side of the Cascades. Some parts of Lake County may be 20 degrees cooler than they were on Saturday, while other east side areas may see 10 to 15 degrees of cooling. Rain showers will dissipate as the day passes.
For east side areas, overnight lows for Sunday night into Monday morning are worth mentioning. Temperatures in the low to mid 30s are expected for Lake and Klamath counties,with mid to high 30s in Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties. For the latter areas, conditions are near Frost Advisory thresholds but confidence in meeting those thresholds is not present. A small shift in expectations may support a product being issued later today. Regardless, any especially sensitive plans and animals may require additional attention given that tonight will be chilly and local areas may reach frost conditions.
An overall uneventful week remains in the forecast, with warm and dry conditions expected across the area. Current guidance has temperatures peaking west of the Cascades on Thursday and Friday while the east side looks to be warmest on Friday and Saturday.
One feature of interest will be a shortwave trough that may develop a cutoff low as it approaches. For most areas, this feature will have little to no impact. However, this feature could bring some fire weather concerns. Its current path would bring gusty winds to the western Cascades foothills up to the peaks. Current guidance keeps humidities out of critical ranges, and upslope flow of September rain showers may have helped these foothills get some additional moisture. A Warning product wouldn`t be needed with expected conditions, but these winds are unusual enough to deserve acknowledgement.
Additionally, deterministic imagery is showing isolated thunderstorms may be possible in the afternoon and evening of Wednesday and Thursday. With the atmosphere in that timeframe looking dry, those thunderstorm chances are looking very slight. Overall, this shortwave trough/cutoff low does not currently look overly threatening, but its path and characteristics are worth paying attention to as midweek approaches.
