WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS
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For 8/30/2020 - from Medford NWS
Skies are clear across the area this morning and are expected to remain so through at least this evening. There may be brief periods of some patchy coastal stratus over the coastal waters, but offshore flow will keep most clouds at bay. Expect seasonable temperatures this afternoon with afternoon highs around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Saturday`s highs. Along the southern coast, however, offshore flow will bring about the Chetco Effect and temperatures there will be quite warm this afternoon into Monday. Upper 80s are in the forecast for Brookings both today and Monday and these look to be the hottest days in the forecast for the southern coast. Expect some breezy north to northwest winds this afternoon, especially west of the Cascades. Today will be the last day of seasonable temperatures for quite some time. The pattern will be transitioning once again as we head into the work week. High pressure over the eastern Pacific leaves the area under northwest flow. Late tonight into Monday morning, a potent shortwave will slide down the backside of the ridge ("inside slider") into the area Monday afternoon. While this won`t do much in terms of sensible weather for our area, there will be some increased cloud cover as well as some enhanced afternoon breezes, especially east of the Cascades. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be a few degrees warmer than today`s highs and this will be the start of a significant warming trend that will continue through the remainder of the week.
The upper level ridge over the PacNW dives southeast Tuesday, with the ridge axis settling over the area and strengthening Wednesday into Thursday. This will bring the return of hot temperatures with temps exceeding the century mark for the Rogue Valley and lower 90s for east side locations. This upcoming heat will be comparable to the event that occurred during the middle of August. High temperatures will be similar to the previous event, and could even challenge some records. The duration of this event is also comparable to the previous event although there is some uncertainty as to how long these hot temperatures will persist. In general, there is moderate to high confidence in hot temperatures persisting through at least Thursday. In addition, overnight temperatures will be very warm as well so expect some impacts to those who are sensitive to heat and lack access to adequate cooling resources. Some heat related bulletins may be needed for this event. Beyond Thursday, uncertainty increases as model solutions diverge some. There are differences in the evolution of the ridge overhead and how it is influenced by low pressure far offshore. Some solutions show a less amplified ridge (slightly cooler temperatures, so upper 90s for west side valleys) while other solutions show a more amplified ridge (continued hot temperatures). Have leaned toward the National Blend of Forecast Models which continues the warm to hot temperatures through the end of the week and into the Labor Day Weekend.
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