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WEATHER SUMMARY AND FORECAST DETAILS

 

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FOR 6/22/2019 - from Rogueweather

 
We have been in a stable weather pattern. This has been persisting and the long range data shows more stability to come. But, we are going to see a brief interruption to that. For Monday and Tuesday, we do still see the same sunny and dry weather we have been. However, late Tuesday into Tuesday night we see a cold front come through preceding a trough. This front may, (and may is a big word), kick off some showers and thunderstorms east of the Cascades. Instability is not that great. But, if this thing times it to come in around 7 or 8 pm, then we would be more likely to see activity develop as the heating of the day is still in play. If the front arrives later, then it likely will not have as favorable an environment to work with.
 
A trough will arrive on Wednesday. It will have a much better chance to get showers and isolated storms going from the Cascades east. West of the Cascades the best chance for showers will be from Douglas County north. There is one forecast model showing there could be rumbles of thunder in Douglas County. But, this seems overblown based on totality of information. And, there is only one model showing it. But, that is the GFS model and it is a major main model. However, based on the total picture that every other model is painting...not going to put a chnce for thunder in Douglas County on Wednesday. One other thing that will happen with the trough is a push of cold air aloft. And that cold air will be filtering down. In the mountains this will get snow levels down to around 6000 - 6500 feet. While I do not see any impact from snowfall, if you have plans to go to Crater Lake both Wednesday and Thursday, be ready for some chilly temps with snow falling at the Rim.
 
I have yet to mention Jackson and Josephine Counties, or Northern California yet. That is due to a believing that the Umpqua Divide is going to be the dividing line west of the Cascades. Could that change? It could. But, right now everything seems pretty certain that the Umpqua Divide holds the shower activity to the north. On Thursday the trough will be moving east. There will still be a chance for showers, mostly from the Cascades east. A ridge will be developing on Friday and then persisting through the end of June and the start of July at least. It may even last longer. Right now we are not seeing any real heat developing with this ridge. But, we will see warming coming that will return us to 80s and 90s west of the Cascades with 70s and 80s east of them. 
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