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LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER - 10/31/2019

 

Presented by:

shady cove mrkt 500100

 

Be sure to see the 3 month and winter forecasts down below

 

November is usually the month where the rainfall starts coming in earnest. Average highs for November in Medford are in the 50s. 50s and 60s are very typical for November at the beginning of the month. By the time you reach the end of the month, 40s for highs are not uncommon at all. Frosts will have certainly occurred over all but the coastal areas. Average rainfall for Medford in November is at 3 inches. The coastal areas will typically see 5 - 7 inches of rain in November. November is also when the snowpacks start building in the mountains. Typically November will bring 2 - 3 feet of snow in the mountains.

As for what we can expect through the middle of November;

The persistent ridging we have seen shows no sign of letting up until we get well into November. So, "sunny today, sunny tomorrow" is going to be the situation until somewhere in the 11th to the 15th of November. Give or take. Timing is going to be an issue. BUT! The data is pretty well resolvesd that the ridge is going to break down and we will get back to seeing rain and snow arriving.
And this is a continuation of what we have been seeing for all of 2019 so far. We started with something of a lull for January. We even saw some warm temps. But, once we hit February, the storm track set up right over us and we entered a prolonged spell of cold wet weather. As I said, we have seen that repeat over and over again. We went through a cold, wet spell from August into mid October. And then this break developed. If you have outdoor plans for now through that middle part of November, it looks like you will not have to worry too much about rain. Expect that we could see temps getting on the cold side if the flow turns northerly. Overnights will continue to be cold. But, it looks like we are not going to see the very cold to frigid temps we have seen earlier this week.
 
 
VERY LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS FALL 2019 AND WINTER 2019 - 2020
 
Presented by:
 
Stoneheatair
 
 
Multiple sources are now indicating that we are headed for another very good winter with plenty of rain and snow. The very big outlier now is NOAA. They are insisting that will be warm and dry once again as they have every year for the last 5 years. I am no longer using them for any long range forecasting as they have not been accurate with it for over 4 years now. 
 
First, let's look at the two most accurate sources we have for long range prediction of winter weather. This would be the almanacs. There are two. The Old Farmers Almanac, and Farmers Almanac. Tru to the name, the Old Farmers has been around the longest. In terms of accuracy they have a very long history of getting it right more often than wrong. Farmers Almanac has more of a miss rate.....but to the credit, they were the ONLY long range source that got our winter right last year. And, being that the overall pattern has not changed that much, I am going to give a lot of creedence to what they say. So here are their predictions;
 
Old Famers Alamanc:
 
Oldfarmerswinter20
 
 
Farmers Alamanac
 

farmerswinter20

 

 

Accuweather did finally get their forecast for the winter out. It is something of an outlier compared to the two above. In fact, it comes closer to resembling what NOAA has forecast. And again. NOAA is saying sdry and warm. Just as they have for the past 5 winters. Accuweather sees us being mild for the winter. Both in terms of temps and also precipitation. So when compared to the two sources above and what we see down below from the State of Oregon, that is not aligning at all. Based on what we have already seen so far it really does not align. But, that is what long range forecasting is about. It is really an estimate of what you think is going to happen. Based on the other sources we have here, it seems like Accuweather's take on temps could be closer to right. But, predicting a mild winter for precipitation is looking to be a stretch. But, we shall see what comes to pass.

 

Accuweather

 

Accuwinter2020

The state of Oregon also does offer long range prediction. And typically speaking, they do a good job of being accurate on at least one phase. There are two phases by the way. Precipitation, and Temperature. The State of Oregon does not release more than a 3 month outlook. So here is what they have for October through December. In this case, basically fall. On the left hand side is temperature. They believe that we will be about 3 to 5 degrees above average for temps for October through December. The right hand side is precipitation. They expect most of the state to be right about normal to slightly above except for that green swath. That swath runs from Southwestern Deschutes County down into Klamath County, and Western Lake County. They predict 115 percent of normal precipitation in that green swath. 

 

oregonfallLR

 

I do think the the last part of what they put up is very noteworthy. That lines up with Old Farmers projections as well. 

 

 

 

 

 

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