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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 6/27/2026

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6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK

This covers the time period of the July 3rd to the 7th. Going to see slightly below to average temps, and near average precipitation. But, this does NOT last!

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8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

This covers the time period of the 5th to the 11th of July. Temps are going to be heating back up....and precipitation will be near normal. Except in Lake and Modoc Counties.

3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK

This is covers the time period of the 11th of July to the 24th. Above average temps, and precipitation will be near normal. Again, at this time of the year...that's not much. July is the driest month of the year on average in Oregon. That said, we need to keep an eye on that Monsoonal moisture coming up out of the Southwest. That may start moving further westward.

May be an image of map and text that says 'ADMVE Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook 11- 2026 Issued: June 26 6. 2026 Near Normal Week 3-4 Precipitation Outlook 11-2 1-2 Issued: June 6 2026 Belaw Below Equal Chances Equall Chances Chances Abavea Equal Chances Above MApeve Abone Ahaye จิญม Above Equal Chances Alova Prokubeny PercemCharca AloNe Below Below Equal Chances Aewe ตื่งลชกวล PeconCancal Peberty မု်ပ'

JULY MONTHLY FORECAST

July is going to be hot, and could be dry. But, should the Monsoon moisture we see in the Southwest shift this way.....there could be heavy rain producing thunderstorms.

May be a graphic of map and text that says 'Monthly Temperature Outlook 2026 026 Issued: Issued:June18,2026 June 8,2 2026 Ae Below Equal Chances Monthly Precipitation Outlook 2026 18, 2026 Issued: Below Above Above Equal Chances Above Above Ecual Chances Probubeny ー Below Above Coua a Chances ) Above Pиcиoлaии Petaltay aY'

LONG RANGE FORECASTS

First up is the 90 day forecast from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is a very good longer range forecaster. He is basing his forecasts on what has happened with years where we had similar climatic conditions. He has found that 1963, 1997, and 2002 had conditions much like we see now. Many times the solution to forecasting the future is to look at the past and similar conditions. Pete does this. Pete has a lot of information in his three month outlook. Click on the second image below to read Pete's report. As you are going to see, Pete and NOAA Climatology are not on the same page at all. One of them is going to be proven right.

May be an image of text that says 'Forecast Highlights This forecast 1S based on the 1963, 1997, & 2002 analog years. were no changes to the analog years from last month's forecast. There Above-average temperatures & mostly near-average precipitation are indicated for the 3-month period. The analogs all had some periods with quite-warm temperatures. 1963 & 1997 were generally wetter than 2002. Large differences in upper-air patterns, and subsequent resultant surface weather, among the analog years lowers forecast confidence. The 2002 analog year was hottest in August, while 1963 & 1997 both had quite warm days in September.'

May be an image of map and text that says 'July September 2026 Forecast Temperatures 2026 September 2026 Forecast Temperature Anomalles (F) 1963, 1997,20 2002 Years Versus 991-2020 Average Precipitation July 2026 September 2026 Precipitation Anomalies (% Avg.) 1963: 1997 Analog Years Versus 0.8 0.8 1.0 120 107 110 0.5 0.7 124 ARaor -5P% 0-0% n-29% 0-19% NerAveraze 2002 had hot spells in July and August, while 1963 & 1997 had some warm periods in September. T'heir blend (above) skews warm. very dry and stable prevailing westerly flow aloft in 2002 was countered by a more moist and unstable SW flow aloft in 1963 & 1997.'

Here is what NOAA is forecasting for July through September. As I said, they are the opposite of what Pete said. Pete is predicting much cooler temps. Who is going to be right? We will see

NOAA Climatology also has this as the drought expectation. Coming out of the winter we did not have......this is not a surprise.

May be an image of map, radar and text that says 'U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought Tendency During the Valid Period Valid for June 18 September 30, 2026 Released June 18, 2026 Depicts large- scale trends based on subje derive probabilities short long-range dynamical Use caution applications affected short "Ongoing drought Drought Monitor areas (intensities ofD1 D4). events. Author: Anthony Artusa NOAA/NWS/NCEP Climate Prediction Center NOTE: The areas imply at least -category improvemeni Drought Monitor intensity| by drought emain. The areas mply drought removal the end enod (DO none) the Drought persists Drought remains, but improves Drought removal likely Hama! Drought development likely No drought Puarto Rise nORA https://go.usa.gov/3eZ73'

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