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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 1/1/2024

 

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COLIN AND MOLLY MULLANE AT FULL CIRCLE REALTY

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The Long Range Forecasts and outlooks are brought to you by Colin and Molly Mullane of Full Circle Real Estate. When it comes to real estate in Southern Oregon, Colin and Molly are the team to have on your side. They bring decades of knowledge and experince to you. Contact them for any questions you have about buying and selling. They would love to talk to you about it. Contact them at 541 621 9994, or connect with them by clicking here.

 

 

 

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

This is covers the time period of the 9th through the 15th. FINALLY we are seeing colder than average temps that are extending as you can see here. And, the above average chances for precipitation are continuing. Hopefully this is going to mean a lot of snow piling up in the mountains. Couple this with what is seen in the current 6 to 10 day outlooks, and we finally are seeing the kind of conditions we would expect to see for winter, and our wet season. 
 
 
 
 
 
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3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK
This is covers the time period of the 13th through the 26th. Temps get back to being warmer than average. However, the precipitation chances look to be well above average. Hopefully snow levels will not be running too high in this time frame.
 
 
 
 
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JANUARY OUTLOOK
 
This is from the NOAA Climatology Center.If you look at this, and then look above to the 8 to 14 day, and  3 to 4 week outlooks, you can see that this forecast is actually looking to be on track. Mostly because on the temp side, you balance out the cold to start the month, with the warmth expected for the later part of the month.
 
 
 
 
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LONG RANGE FORECASTS
 
 
I will no longer be doing seasonal long range forecasts. Too many people took it as gospel truth. I was getting the blame when they went wrong. I am now convinced that the methodology used by the traditional long range forecasters like Old Farmers Almanac have fatal flaws in them. Those are getting exposed. So, rather than "seasonal forecasts" we will be doing 90 day forecasts here. So, this one is going to be December through February. This is both the "wet season" in our part of the world...and Meteorological Winter. 
 
First up is the 90 day forecast from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is a very good longer range forecaster. He is basing his forecasts on what has happened with years where we had similar climatic conditions. He has found that 1958, 1966, and 1973 had conditions much like we see now. Many times the solution to forecasting the future is to look at the past and similar conditions. Pete does this. Pete has a lot of information in his three month outlook. One of those things was seeing that in one of those years, Click on the first image below to read Pete's report.  
 
 
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Here is what NOAA/ National Weather Service is forecasting. You are going to see there is agreement with Pete about the next three months. And, in the precipitation side of it, that is a classic El Nino flow with the heavier precipitation expected in the southern states. That said, white means average. So, that being the case, there would be good news here for Oregon and Washington in the sense that average precip would at least keep the deficit in rainfall from getting bigger. But, we are going to be well behind where we should be at the end of the wet season. Unless that is, something totally unexpected happens. And, something the next long range forecast is calling for.. 
 
 
 
 
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A very interesting counter forecast to what Pete and NOAA were putting out developed in Decmber. I will say that it does run counter to a great many longer range forecasts out there. BUT!! You cannot totally discount it because there are historical records to back this up. And, right as they were saying we could expect it, storm activity did increase, especially in California. That has not translated to much snow due to warm air masses. But, they did get the increase in activity right. Might they then have the rest of the winter firgured right? Click the image below to read the information from Weather West.
 
 
 
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