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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 5/9/2024

Presented by:

COLIN AND MOLLY MULLANE AT FULL CIRCLE REALTY

The Long Range Forecasts and outlooks are brought to you by Colin and Molly Mullane of Full Circle Real Estate. When it comes to real estate in Southern Oregon, Colin and Molly are the team to have on your side. They bring decades of knowledge and experince to you. Contact them for any questions you have about buying and selling. They would love to talk to you about it. Contact them at 541 621 9994, or connect with them by clicking here.

8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK

     

 

 

 

3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK

This is covers the time period of May 18th through the 31st. So, a look at the remainder of the month. This of course includes the Memorial Day holiday weekend. Looking at this, it sure looks like Memorial Day weekend will indeed be a summer holiday in terms of conditons. Most people consider Memorial Day a "summer holiday." This year it seems the weather will oblige and be much more summer like.

 

 

       

 

 

 

       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

LONG RANGE FORECASTS

 

 

I will no longer be doing seasonal long range forecasts. Too many people took it as gospel truth. I was getting the blame when they went wrong. I am now convinced that the methodology used by the traditional long range forecasters like Old Farmers Almanac have fatal flaws in them. Those are getting exposed. So, rather than "seasonal forecasts" we will be doing 90 day forecasts here. 

 

First up is the 90 day forecast from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is a very good longer range forecaster. He is basing his forecasts on what has happened with years where we had similar climatic conditions. He has found that 1958, 1966, and 1973 had conditions much like we see now. Many times the solution to forecasting the future is to look at the past and similar conditions. Pete does this. Pete has a lot of information in his three month outlook. One of those things was seeing that in one of those years, Click on the second image below to read Pete's report.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Here is what NOAA/ National Weather Service is forecasting. You are going to see there is agreement with Pete about the next three months for themps with warmer than average. The precipitation side is where there is some split. NOAA has us as seasonally average for precipitation over our entire forecast area. Pete has the east side being slightly wetter than average. I think both are expecting us to see frequent shower and thunderstorm activity to account for that. Either over the next three months in smaller but more regular periods. Or, in very heavy concentrated bursts. Going to be interesting to see how it plays out.