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LONG RANGE FORECAST OUTLOOKS 8/24/2024
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6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK
You will see trends develop in the 6 to 10 day outlook that can extend deeper to the longer range outlooks. A perfect example is coming right here. This covers the time period of the 30th to the 3rd of September. This is going to cover the Labor Day holiday period fully. Most people consider the Labor Day weekend the end of summer. This year that will carry truth to it as the last day of Meteorlogical Summer is August 31st.......and the first day of Meteorological Fall is September 1st.
Well above average temps are expected. That is something that developed in the weekly forecast you find here. As for rainfall, you can see that we are expected to see slightly above average chances. We will see how this pans out. Right now not seeing anything that looks to give us significant rain.
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
This is covers the time period of the 1st to the 7th of September. This is Back to School time, if your kids have not already gone back. So that says fall for sure.Well above average temps are expected to continue, and so does that slightly above average chance to see rain.
3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK
This is covers the time period of September 7th to the 20th. We are stating to see the heat come to an end here. The chances of rain will be equal/seasonal. That means it could turn out to be dry. We have had Septembers where no, or very little, precipitation was recorded in Medford. And, the daily chances of seeing rain over inland areas is still less than 4 percent.
LONG RANGE FORECASTS
First up is the 90 day forecast from Oregon Department of Forestry Meteorologist Pete Parsons. Pete is a very good longer range forecaster. He is basing his forecasts on what has happened with years where we had similar climatic conditions. He has found that 1958, 1966, and 1973 had conditions much like we see now. Many times the solution to forecasting the future is to look at the past and similar conditions. Pete does this. Pete has a lot of information in his three month outlook. One of those things was seeing that in one of those years, Click on the second image below to read Pete's report.
Here is what NOAA/ National Weather Service is forecasting. This is where you start to get a real sense of disagrement on the really longer range outlooks. Pete had us warmer and drier. NOAA is going average, and average for temps and precip. What is causing this? That we are in a transition phase out of El Nino and moving to La Nina. This is causing a lot of uncertainty for the long range outlooks. Not just from Pete and NOAA. Look down below to see what the two major Almanacs have. I start with Old Farmers.....and then will show you the Farmers, (the newer one), Almanac. You can see the uncertainty there. One thing that they have in common is it being wet for the traditional, or astronomical fall season.
