LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER - 10/21/2018
October is the first full month of fall. Typically October will have highs in the 60s and 70s with 80s and even 90s still possible at the beginning of the month which becomes mostly 50s and 60s with some 70s for highs on the warmest days by the end of the month. Overnight lows can be quite chilly. Most locations in the region will have their first frosts before the end of the month. October on average is typically going to give us a little over an inch of rain in Medford. October will generate about 2 - 3 inches of rain along the Coast in a normal year. Snow levels in the mountains usually are on the high side, but accumulating snows to as low as 2500 feet have happened.
As we look at the data through the end of the month, we have seen a change develop from what had been expected to happen. Earlier in the month it was though we would see warm and dry conditions persist through the end of the month. The newest data from the Climatology Centers is now showing different happening. And for fire fighters and hunters it is excellent news! We are expecting to have higher than average chances for rain to develop. As of this morning we are still not seeing any major storms headed our way that would drop heavy amounts of rain and high elevation snows. But, we do see a marked change in the pattern in that we should be catching the southern end of major storms moving through to our north. And, this is a situation we more typically see develop at the end of September and into the middle of October most years. It is great news indeed to see this setting up.
As for temps we expect to see, those do continue to show in the data as being above average. So we will likely only see rain falling when that does develop as snow levels would be very high. Where we would very typically be seeing 50s and 60s over our area, it looks like we will be about 10 degrees above that for day time highs. Nights will be cool to cold if clear skies develop. But, if we have clouds and higher humidity levels, then expect warmer than average overnight temps as well.