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Weather Summary - 12/12

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I had it pointed out tonight that I had not changed this feature since the 7th. But what was I going to say really? Nothing had been changing at all. We got exactly what we expected to see a happen. A strong ridge of high pressure has been dominating the western US and Canada. This has led to a lot of sun and warm temps in the mountains and at the Coast. It has also led to an inversion over the valleys that keeps air trapped, and temps on the cold side. Especially at night. This also has created steadily declining air quality which those with chronic breathing conditions can really feel. And, that inversion situation will always create fog and low clouds for the valleys. And that has been true. The saving grace for Jackson County was the winds that came in last week about this time that really dried the air mass out. This has limited how much fog could form here. It has also kept the fog decks shallow enough that they did burn off when they did form. Coos, Douglas, and Josephine Counties have not been nearly as lucky. That is where the fog has been thickest and most persistent. And, in the last 3 nights freezing fog has emerged as a problem to be dealt with. And right now, we are not seeing anything that promises to give us long term relief. Oh, and let's not forget that we now have smoke from the fires in Southern California hanging over us as a result of a change in the upper air flow. That will be screening the sun and keeping us from being as warm as we could be through Thursday.
I said there is nothing that looks like it will give us long term relief. There is a glimmer of hope for some improvement and MAYBE some very light rain and snow arriving this weekend. All of what I will say next is a very low confidence statement. It looks as though a trough is going to come in over the Northwest on Friday and then linger through the weekend. A warm front associated withe the trough MIGHT kick off some very light rain for Coos, Douglas, Northern Klamath, and Northern Lake Counties. Being that this is a warm front situation, snow levels would be high. At least 6000 feet if not higher. And even if we do get some moisture to arrive, the result here in our area would be very light.
The one thing that does appear very likely is that the inversion should get busted up. That is why the air stagation advisory is projected to end on Friday. The other effect of this is while we could still see fog in the valleys, it will be much lighter and shallower. This means it will, or at least should be burning off. As we get to next week, the data and models are dancing all over the place. If there is any commonality being seen, it is that things look to get cooler next week and we may have a better chance for light precipitation. As I have been saying for about a week not be looking for any major storms before January. The data tracks are all at least agreeing about that. And of course just one year ago we saw over 7 inches of rain in Medford and snow measured in feet of accumulation for the mountains. By the way......last winter was a La Nina winter. This winter is still officially speaking a La Nina winter. So just remember last December and know that when the storm door does open up, some big time rain and snow amounts could come in a big hurry. And honestly, the data looking forward to January is leaning to that heavy bursts of rain and snow arriving. 
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