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FOR 6/17/2018 - 

The data and models are great tools to have, but as we learned yesterday, they are not magical. They did not handle the low setup east of the Cascades at all. None of them picked up on the amount of activity we had. And of course, some of those showers and storms leaked into Jackson County. Mostly in Northern Jackson County where the Umpqua Divide worked as a conduit to bring them west. Today will be another day featuring more shower and thunderstorm activity. This activity is going to be likely from the Cascades east. That means you should pretty much count on it happening. West of the Cascades, Jackson County will see the best chances for showers and storms. And as was the case yesterday, Northern Jackson County will have the best chances. For Douglas and Josephine Counties, the chances for showers or storms are much lower. Douglas County may see a cell move off the Divide and out into valley areas east of Roseburg and I 5. The one spot in Josephine County that holds the best chance would be that extreme northeastern part that abuts Douglas and Jackson Counties. The further you get away from that, the lower the chance gets. Cave Junction and the Illinois Valley barely have any chance at all...but not going to rule it out completely.
The low triggering all of this is going to be moving east later today and through tonight. By tomorrow the chances for showers and storms will be east of the Cascades. A ridge will be coming from the west and the air flow will be turning to the west as well. Tuesday will be the first of many days in a row of sunshine over the area. We are going to see temps warming up and getting to the 90s for areas west of the Cascades, and 80s for areas east of them. A weak disturbance on Wednesday does off the potential for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Cascades and the mountains of Northern California. But, once that is through the area, that looks to be the only thing coming to offer any kind of a shower or thunderstorm threat. If you have outdoor plans, it looks like you are in the clear. Right now we see nothing that looks like the first heat wave of the season coming at us. We will see one legitimately hot day on Wednesday...but other than that, no sustained, or even oppressive heatr being seen at all. Thursday the 21st will see the arrival of seasonal summer. But real summer heat does not appear to be coming with it.
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