Weather Summary - 10/19
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An incoming front is bringing increased winds along the coast and light to moderate rain early this morning. This strong front will bring moderate to heavy rain along with areas of strong gusty winds. Behind this front a showery and colder pattern moves into place tonight and Friday. This will bring lowered snow levels down to 4000 to 5000 feet and light to moderate snow on passes in the Cascades tonight and Friday. The impacts expected today and Friday from these weather systems include:
Rain Impacts: Slippery wet roadways today. Areas of ponding on roadways possible where there is heavy rain. Debris flows or mud slides possible near recent burn scars in Southern Curry county and extreme Western Josephine county as well as in extreme Western Siskiyou County today and tonight.
Rock falls will be possible across highway 138 in Douglas County between mile posts 45 to 53 (near the Umpqua North Complex wildfire burn area).
Wind Impacts: Travel may become difficult for high profile vehicles due to strong southerly winds along the coastal headlands, Shasta Valley, and east of the Cascades. Isolated trees may fall near burn scars due to high winds.
Dangerous conditions for beach goers with high surf conditions along the coast late Thursday afternoon through Friday. Debris in the Chetco and Pistol Rivers combined with high surf will make for dangerous bar conditions.
Snow Impacts: Slippery, snow-covered roads over the higher passes in the Cascades near Crater Lake and Diamond Lake on Friday. Light snow on Highway 140 near Lake of the Woods on Friday.
Ahead of the front gusty south winds have developed along the coast and over the ridges with gusts of 30 to 45 mph early this morning. These winds will increase today and expect most areas to see gusty winds. Strongest winds will develop over the mountains, into the Shasta Valley and for locations east of the Cascades with gusts of 40 to 60 mph this afternoon into this evening. A high wind warning is in effect for higher terrain in Lake and Modoc Counties and wind advisories are in effect for the valleys in Klamath, Lake, Central and Eastern Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Rain has begun along the coast this morning. Rain will increase and become moderate heavy along the coast through the afternoon. Inland western locations will see rain gradually spread across west side areas late this morning through this afternoon then continue into the evening. Moderate rain is expected from the Cascades west, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening. Rain is expect to across areas east of the Cascades this evening.
In addition to rainfall creating slippery conditions and water on roadways, heavy rain may create significant impacts in and around recent burn scars near the coast and in extreme western Siskiyou County. This includes the Chetco Bar and Eclipse burn scars. Heavy rainfall will bring the potential for rock or mud slides or debris flows near these burn scars. Peak rainfall rates of 0.3 to 0.5 inches per hour are possible this afternoon in Curry County and extreme Western Joesphine county. Peak rainfall rates of around 0.3 inches are possible late this afternoon and early this evening for the burn scars in extreme Western Siskiyou county. Those who live, work or travel in or near these burn scars should take extra caution during and after the heavy rain. Stay alert and never drive through flooded roadways. A flash flood watch is in effect for these areas of concern. Coastal areas and those who will be on area beaches or along the coast today should also be aware of hazardous high surf conditions today. A large northwest swell will impact the coast late this afternoon into this evening and continue into Friday. This will bring dangerous wave run ups on the beach and high surf conditions. Beach goers and those along the coast should stay alert. Also never turn your back on the ocean. A high surf advisory is in effect for late today and tonight.
After this storm, the concern will shift to the cold showery pattern on Friday. Lowered snow levels are expected to result in light to moderate snow over the passes in the Southern Oregon Cascades.Then Friday night, expect a warm front to approach the area and move inland Saturday. Ahead of this front, expect a period of lowered snow levels before warm air moves into the area and snow levels rise. This will bring the potential for moderate snow to fall in the Cascades and western mountains Friday night and early Saturday morning. This will mainly affect areas in the Southern Oregon Cascades above 4000 feet elevation. Timing on snow levels rising will be the main factor in determining how much snow may fall during this period. Otherwise, expect moderate rain with this front across western portions of the area on Saturday. Another round of gusty winds is also possible along the coast and over the mountains on Saturday. Sunday is shaping up to be a day in which we could still have the chance for rain and high elevation snow, but this will be on the tail end of the system and any rain or snow that falls is going to be very light in amounts.
The extended period dries out on Monday with overall calmer conditions. Models are showing temperatures to rebound nicely as conditions dry out. That being said, with the amount of precipitation we will see in the short-term period, nights across the long-term forecast could be socked in with valley fog--particularly west of the Cascades. That being said, the models begin to become less certain with the forecast. TOne main model weakens the thermal trough near the coast and brings a weak front into the offshore waters Thursday morning. Meanwhile, the other main model hangs on to a strong trough with offshore flow continuing into Thursday. We are just going to have to get closer in time to be able to know which one of these models will ultimately win out. And, there is always the possibility that a secondary model which is an outlier at this point, may just have the situation pegged. We do have one that brings another system into us late Thursday into Friday next week. So right now, confidenxce is very low beyond Tuesday of next week.
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