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Weather Summary - 4/27

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Although satellite imagery doesn`t show it all too well, satellite and surface observations show numerous light showers moving across the forecast area, especially Coos and Douglas Counties. These will diminish through the evening as the jet stream axis and upper level trough slide to the east. High pressure and upper level ridging will then build in over the Eastern Pacific, and this will be the primary driver of our weather for the next several days. Also of note, the clear skies and residual cool air in the area may produce some isolated areas of frost in the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning. Might be wise to protect sensitive vegetation if you are in an outlying area. With the ridge placed to our west, and a general trough over the Central United States, we will reside under swift northwest flow aloft for through the weekend. The ridge will deflect most energy and precipitation producing systems to our north, leaving the area dry and warmer. However, the trailing edge of a front passing to our north on Saturday night into Sunday will skirt the northern half of the area, producing showers and slightly cooler temperatures, and also disrupt the thermal trough pattern that will periodically produce much warmer temperatures over the ridges and along the Southwest Oregon coast near Brookings. The models have not been consistent on the strength of the front as they pass to our north, nor have they agreed on where the best chances for showers will be. So, have kept a slight chance to a chance of showers in some areas and expanded coverage to others in an effort to more closely align with the latest guidance, but suspect this may change in later forecast cycles. Otherwise, expect gradually warming temperatures through the week.

Monday through Thursday of next week the area will be under the influence of an upper ridge Monday through Wednesday with mainly warm and dry conditions. A weak disturbance is expected to move over the ridge on Tuesday, and will bring a slight chance for light precipitation to northern portions of the area. Wednesday, models and ensembles continue to show the upper ridge will build inland over the area and bring dry and very warm conditions to the area. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s are expected in western valleys with in the low 70s possible for eastern valleys. Areas of Northern California in the Sacramento Valley especially should see low 90s popping up. Thursday, the upper ridge is forecast to shift eastward while a shortwave trough moves into the region. This trough combined with southerly moisture and instablity will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to inland locations. This is a classic spring summer situation for us. So expect to see sunny to partly cloudy mornings giving way to a chance for afternoon and evening activity for showers and storms.

 

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