LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER - 10/1/2017
October is the first full month of fall. Typically October will have October is the first full month of fall. Typically October will have highs in the 60s and 70s with 80s and even 90s still possible at the beginning of the month which becomes mostly 50s and 60s with some 70s for highs on the warmest days by the end of the month in warm years. Overnight lows can be quite chilly. Most locations in the region will have their first frosts before the end of the month. October on average is typically going to give us a little over an inch of rain in Medford. October will generate about 2 - 3 inches of rain along the Coast in a normal year. Snow levels in the mountains usually are on the high side, but accumulating snows to as low as 2500 feet have happened.
The Climatology Center is forecasting October to be average for both temperatures and precipitation.
So what can we expect through the middle of the month?
We are expecting to see cooler than average temperatures until we get closer to the 12th. It is then expected we will be closer to average for high temps. In Northern California it looks like temps could bve a bit warmer than would be average. This means that we will likely continue seeing 60s and 70s where 70s to 80s would be more typical. East of the Cascades this will mean more 50s to 60s. The Coast will likely continue to be closest to average through mid month. Overnight lows do not look as though they will be abnormally cold. This means if you are west of the Cascades and still nursing a garden along, not seeing anything that looks like a killing freeze coming yet. But, we getting closer to it. I would be ready to protect vegetation if the forecasts call for clear skies overnight. Especially in outlying areas.
Rainfall is expected to be scarce through mid month. If the monthly forecast is right, it means we are expected to start October as dry, to very dry.....but then see a dramatic turn to very wet conditions for the later half of October. And that would not be a surprise or unusual at all. We have had many Octobers where that was exactly the case. This one looks right now like it will be that way. And, once we do see the storms start arriving, these should be the first arrivals of the big storms of later fall and the winter to come.