LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF May - 4/25/2017
May is usually a month where the rainfall is becoming less steady state and more showery. This is also when we see the first stretches of days of sunshine consecutively in a normal year. Average highs for May in Medford are in the 70s. 70s and 80s then are very typical for May. At the beginning of the month you can see some days with 60s, and at the end of the month seeing 90s is not uncommon. The all time record high for May in Medford is 103 which happened in 1939. Average rainfall for Medford in May is right around an inch and a third, which is also average for April. The majority of that typically arrives at the beginning of the month. May is also when we begin to see the activity become more convective with increased odds for seeing thunderstorms over the region as the dynamics swing in their favor.
So what is the data showing us through mid May right now? GREAT news! The current information from the Climatology Center is showing that we are expecting to see average temperatures for this time of the year through mid May. That being the case it looks like we will have a lof of days with temps in the upper 60s to the 70s to come for the areas west of the Cascades and inland from the Coast. East of the Cascades look for a lot of 60s. The mountains will be seeing 50s and 60s. And, overnight temps look as though they will be normal as well. We could still potentially see a frosty night or two. But, the chances of seeing another hard frost or freeze is virtually nil now. For agricultural interests and for gardeners, this will come as a huge relief.
Looking at the precipitation situation, it too looks to be right on normal. And even better news here. After months and months of a prolonged pattern very winter like, we are finally seeing the development of the pattern we expect to see in the spring here. As such when we see rain now, it is far more likely to be associated with showers, and possibly thunderstorms as opposed to the Atmospheric River events we have been seeing so much of. Yes, it really does look like the winter type rains are over once we get to May. Hallelujah! I am more than ready for that.