LONG RANGE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF MARCH - 3/18/2017
March is another bridge month. It takes us from winter to spring. It can also see the first warm temperatures arrive. Typically in March, temps are in the 50s and 60s at the beginning of the month, but rise to the 60s and the low 70s by the end of the month. The all time record for March is 86 which happened in 1930. Average rainfall for Medford in March is 1.61 inches. The Coast can see 3 - 5 inches of rain, and the mountains can usually get 2 - 4 feet of snow. Astronomical, or seasonal spring arrives on the 20th.
So what is expected through the end of March?
The current outlooks call for us to be seeing temperatures that will be running below normal. In fact at the beginning of the time period we are looking at much below. This means that instead of seeing highs near 60 to the low 60s in Medford, we will likely be upper 40s to low 50s. East of the Cascades expect that there will be plenty of days to come in the 40s, and possibly the 30s. The Coastal areas will also be seeing cooler then normal temps, but not as sharply cooler as the inland areas. Expect to see 50s where you would have likely seen 60s. Overnight lows are not expected to be nearly as far below average as the daytime highs. The reason for that? Looks like we are expecting to see persistent cloud cover over the area. As we get down closer to the end of the month we will see some warming. But, highs are still going to be low average. But, it looks more like around 5 degrees instead of the 10 - 15 degrees below average we will see. And, the daily averages will start bumping up here with the longer daylight hours and more direct sun angles. So the temps will likely seem much warmer than what we had been seeing. But that is due more to seasonal shift.
As for precipitation, the data is not giving us any sign of a break from the wet weather any time soon. My prediction that it would be mid April at least before we saw any real break from the wet and stormy weather is going to be right on the mark. The data and models all show that we will see wet conditions continue to see wet conditions. And, of course this means we will keep adding to the huge rain totals we have seen. It also likley means we will see more snow arrive for the mountains. And from the look of the data and models we could see some pretty decent rains nd snow coming through the end of the month. If you were looking to see me saying the storms would be over.......sorry, we are not there yet.