FORECAST FOR 12/18/2014 - presented by Valley Immediate Care
Areas of fog this morning west of the Cascades. Locally dense with limited visibility. After the fog dissipates, expect mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers through this afternoon...and then a chance for rain and snow. Rain and snow tonight with snow levels 4000 - 5000 feet. Highs will be in the low 50s for the valleys, with 30s and 40s for the mountains and east of the Cascades. Overnight lows will be near 40 for the valleys, and in the 20s to the low 30s for the mountains and east of the Cascades.
WEATHER SUMMARY DISCUSSION:
MAJOR, MAJOR changes in the data this morning both short and long term. Basically you can forget EVERYTHING I have been telling you to expect through next Thursday, Christmas Day, because the data has gone completely the opposite direction of what it had been indicating. To recap....what we were expecting was the arrival of a potent, but quick system later tonight in our area. This is system 3 in a series that has been coming through. But, following this system we had been expecting to see rather calm weather develop as it looked like a ridge was going to build in over us. The last three runs of the data have proven that was a pipe dream. The ridge is never going to make it here and this sets us up for some very stormy weather starting mostly on Saturday and then going through Christmas Day at least. Needless to say, impacts for travel look to be significant.
Let's start with today and work forward to Christmas. The system we have been expecting all along is right on track. We have clouds already spreading inland from it. The ocean is getting worked up into a fury. Gale and hazardous sea warnings are up this morning. A high surf advisory will also be in effect from 11 am tomorrow morning through early Sunday morning for the Southern Oregon and Northern California Coast as we will see breakers up to 28 feet arriving. We are already seeing seas running to 13 feet this morning. When the big breakers arrive, high tide periods will be especially dangerous. Some low land flooding may occur as well. Rain from this system will arrive at the coast this afternoon and then work inland. Be expecting some windy conditions to develop as well. Looks like the higher winds will be where they most often are....the mountains, east of the Cascades, and down in Northern California. Might see some gusts hitting in the 40 - 50 mile an hour range. Look for some pretty decent rains to fall. In the mountains, snow levels are going to be running around 4500 - 5000 feet. This is usually where we see impacts in the Cascades, but not on I 5 in the Siskiyous. However, if snow levels come in just a bit lower....then I 5 might get some winter driving conditions too. The best news here is for the ski areas. Both Mt. Ashland and Mt. Shasta are back to expecting to see 3 - 7 inches of new snow from this system. That is wonderful news indeed as both areas will be opening up for the season in the next two days. Mt. Ashland opens tomorrow at 9 am and Mt. Shasta opens Saturday morning at 9 am.
So let's look now at where the BIG changes have happened. It had been expected that we would see calmer weather from Saturday through Christmas. That is now completely out the window. The ridge that was thought to be building in over us starting on Friday will never get here. It will still impact our weather however because it will shift the storm track. We are going to be in the southern warm section of the storms coming in from Saturday through next Wednesday. What this means quickly is that we will see rains, sometimes heavy rain arriving with snow levels going up in the mountains.
The first storm under this new air flow pattern arrives Saturday. This is going to be the transition storm. Snow levels will be lower down at around 4500 feet as the storm arrives on Saturday. As we go through the day Saturday, snow levels will be going up. By Saturday night into Sunday morning snow levels will be up to around 7000 - 8000 feet. The snow level will remain there through Wednesday morning. This is going to be a short term set back for our ski areas. They will be seeing rain falling instead of snow. The rain will produce impacts for travelers as it is going to be heavy at times and this will lead to water ponding on the roads and some roads will be slick. There is also a chance that we could see some stronger winds develop on this system as well. If that happens, then we could see high profile vehicles having issues.
The rains with high snow levels will last off and on through Wednesday / Christmas Eve...and then the next abrupt change arrives. A cold front comes in from the north out of Canada. This will usher in very cold air and MUCH lower snow levels. Timing will be everything on this, and this far out the timing is going to be harder to nail down. We know the cold air will be coming. We know there will still be some moisture around. How much moisture and when the coldest of the air arrives will settle the White Christmas issue. Right now it looks like we see a snow level of somewhere around 2500 to 3000 feet on Christmas Day. That would be more than low enough for areas east of the Cascades and down in Northern California to see snow on Christmas Day. But when on Christmas and how much? Questions that cannot be answered yet. One thing I am still sure of....right now anyway.....is that the valleys of Southwest Oregon will not be seeing a White Christmas. Will that change? I do not expect it too....but I guess I should be reminded here to never say never.
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We are ready to be operational with the Phantom Drone aircraft provided by McMurray and Sons Roofing and Energy Management. We will change how you get immediate information from fires, floods, and other events that will impact your life in the region. This will give you much better information you will need to make decisions about evacuations or other measures to protect life and property.
The video you sill see below was shot during the thunderstorm that hit on Tuesday the 22nd of July. I was impressed by what I was seeing with the naked eye. I had NO idea what the camera was getting. What I saw was mind blowing! The video below is of one lightning strike sequence that happened over Jacksonville. Watch the difference between what your naked eye sees, and what our camera picks up. This is stunning stuff!
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We are working on breaking down an impressive strike sequence that shows a lightning strike from it's genesis stage to the completed strike. Now, you can see this strike in the sequence above. But, when we get finished doing the frame by frame editing you are not going to believe what the camera picked up! I am thrilled because I have never seen a lightning strike sequence this well detailed before quite like this one.
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IN THE NEWS:
Crater Lake National Park has announced a proposal to increase its $10 entrance fee by 150 percent to account for inflation and provide revenue the park says is needed for maintenance projects.
Entrance fees per vehicle, which allows occupants into the park for seven days, would increase to $25. Individual fees would increase from $5 to $12 and motorcycle passes would be raised substantially, from $5 to $20. Interagency passes would remain unchanged at $80 general. $10 for a senior pass, and stay free for military purchasers.
Park officials are asking for public input through late December.The new fees, which would put Crater Lake comparable on fee structure to other national parks of its size. If the proposed fee structures are adopted, they could be implemented by early 2015, though the schedule could vary based on public feedback according to park officials. National Park officials said the increase is to stay consistent with inflation, as entrance fees have not changed since 1997, when seven-day passes doubled, from $5 to $10. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index shows $10 in 1997 is equivalent to about $14.79 in 2014.
They say the extra revenue is needed for repair and maintenance of park facilities, building restoration, additional park programs, transportation services and increased resource protection. Some improvement projects already in the works include reconstruction of the Cleetwood Cove bulkhead and dock facility, expansion of the Cleetwood parking area, repaving of the Mazama Campground, construction of a trail at Plaikni Falls, and the production of an orientation video for the park. The park is looking at these projects as necessary repairs and upgrades, but at the same time is dealing with budgetary cuts that would not provide adequate funding for these projects without the raising of fees as proposed.
Proposed Fee Increase
P.O. Box 7
Crater Lake, OR 97604
226 E. Pine Street
Central Point, Oregon
541 - 664 - 3310
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3735 Crater Lake Highway
541 - 772 - 5550
Kawasaki & Honda of Medford is the largest specialized motorcycle retailer and repair shop north of Redding and south of Roseburg. KHM began as a Kawasaki & Polaris dealership in 1989 when Kathy and Milton Smith acquired the business from Leroy Moore. Soon thereafter, they would add Sea-Doo and by the mid-90’s the Smiths had turned KHM into a four-franchise store with their acquisition of the local Honda Motorcycle dealership. In addition to having every kind of motorcycle you can think of from dirt, performance, to road touring, they also have an extensive variety of ATVs, and Quads in stock. You will find the one you need for work, or for fun. They have one for any purpose. In addition they have factory certified technicians to perform top flight service work to keep your rides in top condition. They also have an extensive parts and accessories department. If you need it they have it. They’ve come a long way...but haven’t forgotten the most important thing...you. If you're already a part of the KHM family, they appreciate having you as a customer very much. If you haven't yet come in to see what they're all about....stop by any time.
2665 Bullock Rd
866 - 373 - 0510
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Steve Potter and the staff will welcome you and treat you like a family member. They will take care of the insurance paperwork for you to free you from that chore. Lithia Body and Paint also has loaners available for you to use while your vehicle is in for repair. You will have a first rate experience here I can promise you that. How do I know? Just ask anybody who has been there and had them work on their vehicle.
RogueWeather.com is based in Medford, Oregon. The founder, Greg Roberts is the forecaster. Greg has nearly 30 years of weather forecasting experience, specializing in severe weather events. Greg has received training from a variety of sources, including the University of Oklahoma.
Greg volunteers as a Skywarn weather observer for the National Weather Service. This has lead to many hours out in the field storm chasing and getting up close with the storms he loves.
Greg also served as a wildland and municipal fire fighter and EMT. While a fire fighter he earned many certifications including Engine Company Officer and Incident Commander for wildland fires. His weather knowledge was useful on wildland fires he worked in Oregon and Northern California. Greg still consults with various fire departments, and also for private wildland fire fighting companies on fire related matters.
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